The ongoing conflict between a US-Israel coalition and Iran escalated dramatically on February 28, 2026. Casualty figures are preliminary and vary by source.
Iran has suffered significant military losses including senior leadership. The IRGC remains operational despite leadership degradation. Proxy attacks through Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Houthis continue to widen the conflict.
The conflict has disrupted global energy markets, with oil prices surging due to attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. India’s energy security and trade routes through the Gulf are directly affected.
Future trajectories for Iran: The regime faces internal power struggles following leadership losses. The IRGC’s vast networks controlling economic assets and militias remain intact. A succession crisis complicates Iran’s ability to negotiate or de-escalate.
India’s strategic calculus in this conflict requires careful navigation — maintaining ties with both Iran and Gulf Arab states while protecting energy interests.