The situation on the ground, Tehran’s options, and the risks of escalation.
Joint U.S.–Israel Offensive: A coordinated military campaign began on 28 February 2026 with intensive air and missile strikes against Iranian strategic and military targets including defense sites, missile infrastructure and command facilities.
Iran’s Strategic Options:
1. Continue conventional retaliation — sustain missile/drone strikes on U.S. and Israeli assets.
2. Escalate to broader regional conflict — expand to direct engagements involving Gulf states, Iraq, and Yemen’s Houthis, targeting critical shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Harden defenses — focus on defensive depth and attritional warfare.
4. Leverage diplomatic channels — international mediation by UN, China, Turkey, or European powers.
Immediate Risks: Prolongation of direct strikes, wider Middle East escalation, Strait of Hormuz instability, and risk of miscalculation in fast-moving high-intensity conflict.
Best-case scenario: Limited de-escalation through international mediation. Worst-case: Multi-front regional war drawing in proxies and Gulf states.