Pakistan’s ongoing economic crisis — characterised by IMF dependency, currency collapse, energy shortages, and political instability — has direct security implications for India that go beyond conventional threat assessment.
A destabilised Pakistan is not necessarily a safer neighbourhood for India. History shows that Pakistani military establishments under economic pressure have used cross-border tensions and proxy groups as tools of domestic political management.
The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s resurgence creates a complex dynamic — the Pakistani military faces internal security challenges that divert attention and resources from the India front, but also creates incentives for externalising instability.
For India’s strategic planners, the key questions are: Does Pakistani instability increase or decrease the probability of misadventure across the LOC? How does China’s economic leverage over Pakistan shape Pakistani decision-making toward India? What are the implications for Afghanistan’s Taliban government if Pakistan’s economic situation deteriorates further?
India’s best strategic response combines firm deterrence with active diplomacy among Pakistan’s neighbours and quiet economic engagement with Pakistani civil society.