Imagine waking up one morning and finding that the price of the cooking gas in your kitchen has doubled overnight. Imagine fuel queues stretching for kilometres. Imagine nine million of your fellow citizens stranded in a war zone, sending home money that feeds forty to fifty million families.
This is not a hypothetical scenario. This is India’s reality — right now. And it all traces back to one single flashpoint: the US-Israel war on Iran.
Welcome back to the channel. Today we’re doing a deep dive into the most consequential geopolitical event of 2026 — a war that has already reshaped global energy markets, challenged the foundations of international law, and placed India at a historic crossroads.
Let’s get into it.
WHAT EXACTLY IS HAPPENING?
On February 28th, 2026, the United States and Israel jointly launched a military operation against Iran — codenamed “Operation Epic Fury.” This marked a dramatic escalation of years-long tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme, its regional proxy networks, and US-Israel security interests.
In the weeks that followed, the attacks struck targets across Iran, including missile sites, military infrastructure, and most recently — on March 21st — Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. The US-Israeli coalition has also struck Beirut, targets along the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran-linked assets in the wider region.
By today — Day 24 of the war — here is where things stand:
**The human toll inside Iran** is devastating. More than 1,400 civilians have been reported killed in Iran, including a child and her parents in the coastal city of Ramsar, struck in an overnight attack just hours ago. Iranian state media is broadcasting its own narrative to its citizens, inflating enemy casualties, but Iranians are finding ways to bypass internet blocks to tell their families abroad the truth.
Iran has retaliated ferociously. It has launched 70 waves of missile and drone attacks — targeting Israel, US military bases in the Gulf, energy infrastructure across Gulf Arab states, and even Diego Garcia, the remote UK-US military base in the Indian Ocean, 4,000 kilometres away. This last strike stunned Western intelligence because it revealed Iran possesses ballistic missiles with far greater range than previously known.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed in the strikes — a seismic event to which the world is still reacting.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed. Iran has threatened to “set fire” to any ships trying to pass. At least 21 vessels have been hit or targeted since the war began. Insurance has been cancelled for tankers attempting the route. Only a trickle of ships — 21 tankers in the first three weeks — have made it through.
And the United States? President Donald Trump has said he is “considering winding down” the war — but is simultaneously sending more troops and warships to the region and asking Congress for billions more in war funding. His messaging is confused, and analysts say he has, in the words of one strategic consultant, “lost his mojo.”
THE STRATEGIC PICTURE — GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS[Voiceover / On Camera]**
Let’s now zoom out and look at the strategic earthquake this war has triggered globally.
The US and its allies are divided. Trump called NATO “cowardly” after European allies refused to send warships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. The UK has allowed the US to use its bases to strike Hormuz targets — a move Iran called “participation in aggression.” But the broader Western alliance is hesitant, wary of being pulled into a prolonged Middle East war.
Analysts say the US fundamentally miscalculated.** They expected Iran to collapse quickly. Instead, Iran has displayed extraordinary resilience, revealing new military capabilities — the Diego Garcia strike being the most shocking example. Former US Ambassador John Bass has said the Trump administration “failed to think through the contingencies.”
Iran’s strategy is to make the war too economically painful for the world to sustain. By choking the Strait of Hormuz, it is squeezing not just the US and Israel, but every oil-dependent economy on earth — including China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Europe.
China is in a particularly uncomfortable position. It buys approximately 90% of Iranian oil exports. It has been called upon by Trump to help secure Hormuz — and refused. Beijing is watching the war with alarm, calculating the risks to its own energy security and its Belt and Road investments across the region.
Russia has welcomed the chaos. Higher oil prices benefit Moscow enormously, and the war diverts US attention and military resources away from Europe and Ukraine.
Gulf Arab states — Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain — are caught between their strategic alliance with the US and their geographic vulnerability to Iranian retaliation. Iran has been striking energy sites and UAE cities. The UAE has intercepted over 341 ballistic missiles and 1,748 drones since the war began. Two UAE soldiers and six foreign workers have been killed.
Iran’s key claim in this narrative** is sovereignty and international law. It has invoked the right to self-defence. Its foreign minister has described the US-Israeli operation as “military aggression” and called on the world to condemn it. That message is resonating in parts of the Global South, even as Iran’s own civilian population suffers terribly.
The nuclear dimension must not be overlooked. The strike on Natanz — Iran’s primary uranium enrichment facility — was a massive escalation. Iran has informed the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency of the attack, with no reported radioactive leakage, but the long-term implications for nuclear non-proliferation are profound and deeply worrying.
: THE COMMERCIAL / ECONOMIC PICTURE — GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
Now let’s talk money — because the economic shockwaves from this war are being felt in every kitchen, every petrol station, and every factory floor on earth.
Oil prices have surged to around $100 a barrel — nearly a 70% rise this year alone. At one point, oil touched $120 a barrel on a single Sunday. Iran’s IRGC has warned the world to brace for oil reaching $200 per barrel. The International Energy Agency released a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves in an emergency move — and it barely dented the panic.
Why such extreme numbers? Because the Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil pipeline. It is the jugular vein of the global economy. About 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passed through it every day before the war — that’s roughly 20% of the world’s entire oil supply. It also carries 20% of the world’s LNG, mostly from Qatar. And one-third of global fertiliser trade passes through it.
Close that strait, and you don’t just raise petrol prices. You raise food prices, because fertiliser becomes scarce. You raise mortgage rates, as lenders in the UK have already done. You disrupt global manufacturing supply chains.
Shipping insurance has been cancelled for Hormuz-bound tankers. The few ships that do attempt the crossing face drone attacks, mines, and missile strikes. Alternative pipeline routes — Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, UAE’s Fujairah bypass — exist, but they cannot replace Hormuz volume. Diverting through them would reduce global supply by 8 to 10 million barrels per day. And even the Fujairah port has been hit by drone strikes.
Stock markets globally have plunged.** Lenders are raising interest rates. Mortgage costs are rising for ordinary families from London to Mumbai to Seoul.
Food prices are climbing as the cost of fertiliser, transport fuel, and energy for food processing all rise together. The BBC’s analysis shows that the impact on food costs will be felt hardest in developing economies.
Global trade is being rerouted at enormous cost. Ships that once transited through Hormuz are now either anchored, rerouted around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, or waiting out the crisis. This adds weeks and millions of dollars to every cargo journey.
INDIA’S STRATEGIC SITUATION
**[Indian flag, map of India and the Gulf, footage of Indian Navy ships]**
**[Voiceover / On Camera]**
Now to the question that matters most to you, our viewers: How is this war affecting India strategically?
The answer is: deeply, and in contradictory ways that reveal the extraordinary complexity of India’s geopolitical position in 2026.
India’s energy vulnerability is stark. More than 80% of India’s gas and up to 60% of its oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. With the strait effectively closed, India faces a genuine energy emergency. The government has invoked emergency powers, directed refiners to maximise LPG production, cut industrial gas supply to protect household cooking fuel, and urged citizens not to panic-buy cylinders.
On March 14th, in a rare diplomatic victory, two Indian-flagged LPG tankers managed to cross the Strait of Hormuz safely — because Iran’s ambassador to India confirmed Tehran had granted India a special exception. Prime Minister Modi had personally called Iranian President Pezeshkian to negotiate this. It was a diplomatic coup, but a fragile one. This is not a permanent solution. It is a gesture by Iran — one that underscores India’s unusual position as a country that has maintained working ties with Tehran even as the US wages war against it.
India’s diplomatic tightrope is extraordinarily difficult. Consider these contradictions:
India is the largest buyer of Israeli weapons and Modi visited Israel just days before the US-Israel attack on Iran — a visit critics say lent legitimacy to Netanyahu. At the same time, India has longstanding ties with Iran, including the strategically vital Chabahar Port project, which India has developed as its gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia — and which now sits in a war zone.
India has sheltered an Iranian warship that participated in Indian-hosted military exercises, after a US submarine sank the vessel’s companion ship off the coast of Sri Lanka. India condemned the Iranian missile attacks on Gulf nations — but has not condemned the US-Israel attack on Iran. It has not commented on the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei.
The main opposition Congress party, led by Sonia Gandhi, has openly criticised this silence. She wrote that India’s refusal to defend international law and state sovereignty “raises serious doubts about the direction and credibility of our foreign policy.”
The Chabahar dimension is critical. India has invested heavily in Chabahar Port in Iran as an alternative trade corridor to Afghanistan and Central Asia that bypasses Pakistan. With the war, this project is in jeopardy. At the same time, the US has so far given India some latitude on Chabahar given its strategic value in countering China’s influence in the region.
India’s relationship with the US** is also being tested. The US gave India a 30-day sanctions waiver to continue buying Russian crude as a “stop-gap measure” during the oil crisis — an unusual concession that signals Washington values its relationship with New Delhi, but also signals that India is not fully aligned with US policy.
**The broader Indo-Pacific equation** is also shifting. The Iranian strike on Diego Garcia — the UK-US base in the Indian Ocean — has alarm bells ringing in New Delhi. The Indian Ocean is India’s strategic backyard. An Iran capable of striking Diego Garcia with ballistic missiles changes the entire regional security calculus for India’s naval planners.
INDIA’S COMMERCIAL / ECONOMIC SITUATION
The commercial impact on India is already severe, and could become catastrophic if the war drags on.
The LPG crisis is the most immediate problem. India has 333 million households connected to LPG for cooking. With Hormuz blocked, supplies have been disrupted. Hotels and restaurants are weighing closures. People are queueing for cylinders. The government has invoked emergency measures — barring PNG-connected homes from also holding LPG cylinders — to prevent hoarding and protect supply for those who have no alternative.
**Oil import costs** have exploded. India, which imports about 85% of its crude oil needs, is now paying nearly 70% more per barrel than before the war. This is a massive blow to the fiscal position of the country. It feeds inflation across the entire economy — fuel, transport, food, manufacturing. Harsh V. Pant of the Observer Research Foundation told Al Jazeera that “energy markets are already volatile and costs are rising, which could eventually translate into broader economic and inflationary pressures.”
The remittances crisis may be the most underreported but deeply human dimension of this story. India has 9.1 million citizens working in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries — the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain. They send approximately $50 billion home every year. That money feeds, educates, and sustains an estimated 40 to 50 million people across India — in Kerala, UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh.
If the war escalates, those jobs are at risk. Several oil and gas firms in the Gulf have already shut operations. An Indian construction worker in the Gulf told Al Jazeera: “I hope this does not prolong as I support my family with this job.” Former Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Talmiz Ahmad, put it starkly: “Every Indian who works in the Gulf supports at least four to five people back home.”
Asian workers, including Indians, have already been killed in Iranian drone and missile attacks across the Gulf. The UAE’s Defence Ministry noted that among those killed and wounded in Iran’s attacks are Pakistani, Nepali, Bangladeshi, and Palestinian nationals — and Indian workers are also at risk.
The evacuation nightmare looms as a worst-case scenario. If the war spirals out of control, evacuating 9.1 million Indians from the Gulf would be the largest such operation in history — far beyond even the 200,000 evacuated during the 1990-91 Gulf War. Ambassador Ahmad has said plainly: “There is no way, in a war situation, any country, including India, can evacuate nine or 10 million people.” India’s embassies have set up 24-hour helplines and emergency control rooms.
Indian trade with Iran and the Gulf is also being disrupted. The Chabahar trade corridor, Indian pharmaceutical exports to Iran, and broader India-Middle East commerce are all under severe strain. The rerouting of global shipping around the Cape of Good Hope adds enormous cost and time to goods that India exports and imports via sea.
The alternative sourcing pivot is already underway. India is turning to Russian crude, with a US-granted sanctions waiver. It is also increasing energy purchases from the United States. But neither can fully replace the Gulf’s proximity, volume, and existing infrastructure.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
So what does the road ahead look like?
The honest answer is that nobody knows — and that uncertainty itself is a form of crisis.
President Trump has floated the idea of “winding down” the war, but Israel’s Defence Minister Katz said this week that the attacks would “significantly escalate.” Netanyahu has said Israel “acted alone” in at least one major strike — on Iran’s gas field — even claiming Trump asked him not to. There are clear signs of US-Israeli misalignment, which makes predicting the war’s trajectory even harder.
For Iran, the calculus is also complex. It has absorbed enormous punishment. Its Supreme Leader is dead. Its nuclear sites are being bombed. But it has also demonstrated remarkable military capability and has inflicted serious economic pain on the world. It may be calculating that a prolonged war eventually forces the US to the negotiating table.
For India, the coming weeks will be critical. Can Modi’s government secure more reliable energy exemptions through Hormuz? Can it diversify supply fast enough to prevent a domestic inflation catastrophe? Can it protect its citizens in the Gulf? And can it maintain its strategic balancing act — staying close to the US, preserving ties with Arab states, and keeping channels open to Iran — without losing credibility with any of them?
Let me leave you with this thought.
This war is a reminder that the world we thought we understood — stable oil supplies, predictable alliances, a rules-based international order — is far more fragile than we imagined. A single military operation launched in a distant corner of the world has, within three weeks, raised the price of the gas in your kitchen, threatened the jobs of millions of Indian families, disrupted global food supply, and forced India to make diplomatic choices it would have preferred never to face.
India’s response to this crisis — how it secures its energy, protects its diaspora, navigates its alliances, and articulates its values — will define its credibility as a rising global power for years to come.
We will keep tracking this story as it develops. If you found this video valuable, please hit like and subscribe — and drop your views in the comments below. Do you think India is handling this crisis well? Should India take a stronger position on international law? Let’s discuss.
Until next time — stay informed, stay analytical, and stay engaged.